Nutrien Ltd. (TSX:NTR) saw its shares rise 5.3% following the release of strong full-year 2025 financial results, accompanied by a modest dividend increase and authorization for a new share repurchase program. The company reported record fertilizer sales volumes, higher adjusted EBITDA, and improved free cash flow, driven by operational efficiencies and favorable pricing in key segments. Management emphasized capital returns to shareholders while outlining 2026 guidance that points to continued volume strength in potash and retail improvements.
Nutrien Delivers Robust 2025 Performance Amid Fertilizer Market Recovery
Nutrien Ltd., the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and services, posted a strong rebound in 2025, with full-year sales reaching $26.885 billion. Net earnings climbed to $2.30 billion, or approximately $4.66 per share from continuing operations, marking a significant improvement from prior-year levels. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $6.05 billion, reflecting a 13% increase year-over-year, fueled by higher fertilizer net selling prices, record upstream fertilizer sales volumes totaling around 27.5 million tonnes, and elevated contributions from the Retail segment.
In the fourth quarter alone, sales amounted to $5.340 billion, with net earnings of $0.58 billion ($1.18 per diluted share). Adjusted EBITDA for the period was $1.28 billion, and adjusted net earnings per share came in at $0.83. These figures highlight the company’s ability to capitalize on tighter global supply dynamics in potash and nitrogen, even as some nitrogen volumes faced constraints from operational factors.
The Potash segment benefited from robust demand and pricing support, achieving record sales volumes. Nitrogen operations saw higher realized prices despite certain production limitations, while Phosphate contributed through steady execution. Retail adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.74 billion, supported by cost savings initiatives exceeding $200 million, stronger margins on proprietary products, and successful margin improvements in the Brazil business.
Free cash flow generation remained a highlight, with approximately $1.979 billion produced in 2025. This was bolstered by reduced capital expenditures of $2.005 billion—below initial targets—and proceeds from asset divestitures totaling around $900 million since late 2024, including sales of interests in Profertil, Sinofert, and smaller assets. These actions helped reduce adjusted net debt to $11.060 billion, improving the adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio to 1.8x from 2.2x in the prior year.
Shareholder Returns Accelerated With Dividend Hike and Expanded Buyback Authority
In tandem with the earnings release, Nutrien’s Board approved an approximate 1% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.55 per share, payable on April 16, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 31, 2026. This equates to an annualized dividend of $2.20 per share and marks the eighth consecutive annual increase, underscoring confidence in sustained cash flow generation.
The company also authorized a new normal course issuer bid (NCIB), approved by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the repurchase of up to 5% of outstanding common shares—approximately 24.057 million shares—over a 12-month period commencing March 3, 2026. This follows the completion of the prior program, under which Nutrien repurchased about 2% of shares outstanding in 2025 for $551 million (with cumulative repurchases under that program reaching roughly 8.7 million shares for over $510 million).
Total cash returned to shareholders via dividends and repurchases rose 30% in 2025 to around $1.612 billion. Management views share repurchases as an attractive use of capital, particularly given the stock’s valuation and the company’s strengthened balance sheet. The NCIB provides flexibility to opportunistically retire shares, potentially enhancing earnings per share and dividend coverage over time.
2026 Outlook Points to Volume Stability and Cash Flow Momentum
Looking ahead, Nutrien provided 2026 guidance reflecting expectations for continued demand in core nutrients. Potash sales volumes are projected at 14.1–14.8 million tonnes, with controllable cash costs at or below $60 per tonne. Nitrogen volumes are guided to 9.2–9.7 million tonnes, assuming no production from certain facilities like Trinidad and New Madrid. Phosphate sales are expected at 2.4–2.6 million tonnes, while Retail adjusted EBITDA is forecasted between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion.
Capital expenditures are targeted at $2.0–$2.1 billion, maintaining discipline seen in 2025. Management anticipates further free cash flow growth from working capital unwinds and ongoing cost efficiencies. Strategic reviews of phosphate operations and portions of the Brazilian retail business are underway, which could lead to additional portfolio optimization and unlock further value.
Key Financial Highlights from 2025
Full-year sales: $26.885 billion
Net earnings: $2.30 billion
Adjusted EBITDA: $6.05 billion (up 13% YoY)
Free cash flow: ~$1.979 billion
Capital expenditures: $2.005 billion (reduced vs. targets)
Dividends and repurchases: $1.612 billion (up 30% YoY)
Share repurchases in 2025: ~2% of outstanding shares for $551 million
New NCIB: Up to 5% of shares (~24.1 million)
Quarterly dividend: Increased to $0.55 per share (annualized $2.20)
The market’s positive reaction, with shares climbing 5.3%, reflects investor appreciation for Nutrien’s execution in a cyclical industry, prudent capital allocation, and commitment to returning cash amid a recovering agricultural inputs environment. As global crop nutrient demand remains supported by tight supply fundamentals, Nutrien appears well-positioned to sustain momentum into 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendations, or an endorsement of any security. Investors should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
