With monday.com set to release its Q4 2025 earnings on February 9, Wall Street analysts are approaching the report with measured caution amid recent price target reductions and concerns over 2026 guidance. Despite the short-term headwinds, consensus remains firmly positive, with average price targets suggesting substantial upside from current levels near $115, driven by the company’s strong fundamentals in work management software and potential for multi-product expansion.
Detailed Analysis of monday.com Ahead of Earnings
monday.com (NASDAQ: MNDY) has experienced a sharp pullback in recent months, with shares trading around $115 after hitting a 52-week high above $340. This represents a significant decline from peak levels, bringing the market capitalization to approximately $5.9 billion. The drop reflects broader pressures in the SaaS sector, including macroeconomic uncertainty, slower enterprise spending, and investor rotation away from high-growth tech names. However, as the company approaches its Q4 2025 earnings release, the focus shifts to whether the results can serve as a catalyst for a rebound.
The upcoming report covers the quarter ending December 2025, with consensus estimates calling for revenue of approximately $329.7 million, representing roughly 22-23% year-over-year growth. Earnings per share are projected at $0.92, with a range from $0.80 to $1.00. These figures follow a solid Q3 performance, where the company reported revenue of $316.9 million and EPS of $1.16, surpassing expectations. Guidance for Q4 was previously set at $328-330 million in revenue and $36-38 million in non-GAAP operating income, implying operating margins of 11-12%. Full-year 2025 revenue guidance stands at $1.226-1.228 billion, reflecting continued expansion.
Analysts have adopted a cautious stance in the lead-up to the print, with several firms trimming price targets in recent weeks. Concerns center on the potential for conservative fiscal 2026 guidance, with some projections pointing to revenue growth in the 18-19% range—below what the Street had hoped for amid ongoing macro challenges. Top-of-funnel metrics, sales cycle lengths, and enterprise adoption rates remain under scrutiny, as investors weigh the risk of slower momentum in a competitive landscape that includes established players like Asana, Smartsheet, and broader productivity suites.
Despite these near-term worries, the overall analyst sentiment leans strongly positive. The stock carries a Moderate Buy to Strong Buy consensus rating across 25 or more analysts covering the name. Average price targets cluster around $240-250, with highs reaching $375 and lows around $194. This implies potential upside of 100% or more from current trading levels, highlighting the disconnect between short-term caution and long-term conviction.
Key Analyst Views and Price Target Adjustments
Several notable updates illustrate the mixed but ultimately optimistic tone:
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating but recently reduced its price target to $200, citing expectations of a modest revenue beat in Q4 but lower-than-anticipated 2026 guidance. The firm sees the initial conservative outlook as a potential “clearing event” that could pave the way for a stronger recovery.
Barclays holds a Buy rating with a $194 target, reflecting tempered expectations for near-term growth but confidence in sustained upmarket strength.
Other adjustments include KeyCorp lowering to $220, Jefferies to $260, and earlier trims from firms like Citigroup and JPMorgan. These moves largely reflect recalibration following the stock’s steep decline rather than fundamental deterioration.
Even with the reductions, the majority of analysts view the current valuation as attractive relative to monday.com’s growth profile and market opportunity.
Financial Metrics and Operational Strengths
monday.com continues to demonstrate solid execution in its core work operating system platform. The company benefits from high retention rates, expanding average revenue per user through multi-product adoption, and increasing penetration into larger enterprises. Key drivers include enhanced AI capabilities, improved customization tools, and broader workflow automation features that address evolving remote and hybrid work needs.
The platform’s modular design allows customers to scale usage across sales, marketing, HR, IT, and operations teams, fostering stickiness and upsell opportunities. Recent quarters have shown accelerating momentum in multi-product adoption and upmarket deals, trends analysts expect to strengthen over fiscal 2026 even if headline growth moderates initially.
Valuation Considerations
At current levels, monday.com trades at a significant discount to historical multiples and peers in the SaaS space. The stock’s forward price-to-sales ratio sits well below peak levels, offering a compelling entry point for investors focused on long-term compounding. While profitability remains a work in progress—with non-GAAP margins improving but still modest—the path to sustained operating leverage appears intact as scale increases.
Risks and Catalysts
Short-term risks include a potential miss on guidance that could weigh further on sentiment, prolonged macro softness impacting enterprise budgets, and competitive pressures. On the flip side, an in-line or better-than-expected report—particularly if accompanied by reassuring commentary on 2026 trends—could trigger a sharp rebound. Improved top-of-funnel indicators, stronger multi-product traction, and signs of accelerating enterprise momentum would reinforce the bullish case.
In summary, while caution prevails in the immediate run-up to earnings, the underlying business momentum and analyst conviction point to substantial upside potential for monday.com once near-term uncertainties clear.
Disclaimer: This is a news and analysis report for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making decisions.
